The Democrats’ most comfortable path to victory runs through Mesa, not Milwaukee
By William A. Galston The Wall Street Journal
(Editor’s note: Opinion pieces are published for discussion purposes only.)
Assume, as I do, that` President Trump survives a Senate trial and is renominated as the Republican candidate for president. With one year to go until the election, here are a few things we can say about the emerging contest.
First, Mr. Trump is unlikely to win any state he did not carry in 2016. As of Tuesday, according to Civiqs polling, 43% of Americans approve of his performance as president and 54% disapprove—a net rating of minus-11. But in each of the seven states where Mr. Trump fell short by 10 points or less in 2016, his standing is worse than in the country, ranging from minus-12 in Virginia to minus-18 in New Hampshire. If Mr. Trump’s travel schedule is any guide, he thinks he has a shot in Minnesota and New Mexico, but his ratings in these states (minus-15 in both) suggest that he’s fooling himself.
Second, Mr. Trump is in relatively good shape in three of the largest states that propelled him to victory. His job approval stands at 49% in Texas and Ohio and 47% in Florida. In Texas, according to a detailed demographic study of potential swing states by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin, 76% of white voters without college degrees supported him in 2016. If he comes anywhere near this performance in 2020, he is likely to prevail statewide. The same is true in Ohio, which he carried by a surprisingly large margin of 8 points.
Florida is more complicated. But as Messrs. Teixeira and Halpin point out, Republicans did well there in 2018, a bad year for the GOP nationally. Not only did they win bitterly contested senatorial and gubernatorial races, but they won the aggregate House popular vote by more than 5 points. On the other hand, Democrats should benefit from favorable demographic shifts, including a 2-point reduction in the non-college white voters’ share of the electorate since 2016. Mr. Trump’s extraordinary success in mobilizing white voters in central and northern Florida in 2016 swamped Democratic efforts in their traditional south Florida strongholds, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. If the Democrats can raise their game, they have a shot. If not, the president’s job approval—4 points better than his national standing—will probably prove decisive.
Third, Mr. Trump is in trouble in two of the states he narrowly dislodged from the Blue Wall in 2016. His job approval rating stands at minus-7 in Michigan and minus-10 in Pennsylvania. In Michigan last fall, Democrats easily won senatorial and gubernatorial races, flipped two House seats and carried the House popular vote by 8 points. In Pennsylvania, the incumbent Democratic governor and senator were re-elected by double-digit margins, and Democrats increased their House delegation by three seats while winning the House popular vote by 10 points. In both states, the shrinking share of non-college white voters will make Mr. Trump’s climb steeper.
Fourth, Mr. Trump is surprisingly weak in Iowa, a state he carried by more than 9 points in 2016. His job approval is only 43%, with an overall rating of minus-10, barely better than his national average. Although the incumbent Republican governor scored a modest victory over her Democratic rival in 2018, Democrats won the House popular vote by 10 points, snatching two seats from the Republicans. These gains would not have been possible without major shifts to Democrats among white non-college voters, who make up 62% of the Iowa electorate and gave Mr. Trump a 23-point margin in 2016. If the Democratic nominee can hold on to even a portion of these gains, Iowa is within reach.
Fifth, although Mr. Trump is doing reasonably well in Wisconsin, the third Blue Wall state he carried in 2016, he is in danger of losing Arizona, a traditionally Republican state. Mr. Trump’s job approval stands at 47% in Wisconsin, for an overall rating of minus-3, compared with 45% and minus-8 in Arizona. In troubling signs for Republicans, Arizona sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 2018 for the first time in 30 years, and white non-college voters’ share of the 2020 Arizona electorate is projected to decline by nearly 3 points from 2016.
