The Monday Morning Quarterback | A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
Arizona Snapshot
When compared to prior year levels, only manufacturing and government employment are down. Construction is up, but by only 500 jobs, or 0.4%. Growth in employment is currently being driven by Education and Health Services (11,000 jobs or 3.0%); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (8,900 jobs or 1.9%); and Professional & Business Services (8,700 jobs or 4.9%).
Through October, Arizona employment levels are up 2.0% compared to the same period last year. However, Greater Phoenix employment for the same period is up 2.5%. This region continues to lead the state in most economic categories.
The statistics place Arizona eighth nationally in terms of employment growth. Keep in mind that this ranking can change from month to month since a dozen or so states are tightly grouped together in terms of job growth. It will be sometime in 2014 when Arizona separates itself from the group and more consistently places in the top 10 or even top 5. The chart below shows Arizona’s growth compared to other states.
U.S. Snapshot
Inflation is still not an issue. As of October, the U.S. CPI is up a meager 0.9% compared to the previous year. Similarly, the Producer Price Index is up only 0.3% for finished goods as compared to last year.
U.S. retail sales are still growing, but not as robustly as many economists had expected. For October, sales increased by 3.9% compared to last year. Many analysts are trying to make a direct connection with recent declines in Consumer Confidence and future retail sales activity, and are calling for a very weak holiday shopping season. While levels of confidence do have an impact on shopping activity, the financial well-being of households has an even greater impact. What we tend to see is people responding to the confidence survey with great pessimism right before they drive to the store and buy a new television, etc. The dramatic changes in confidence, driven largely by activities in D.C., are only suggesting some dampening of sales activity for this winter. The changes do not point to a collapse of retail sales as some pessimists suggest.
