Pollack: ‘We have it pretty good all things considered’
The Monday Morning Quarterback /A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
We are hopefully headed into a period of the recovery when people talk about the positive economic data more than the bad. The U.S. Blue Chip forecast for Real GDP rose slightly for 2014, to 2.9%. The forecast calls for 3.0% growth in 2015 (see chart below). For additional perspective, the 4th quarter of 2013 grew by 3.2%. This is right at the 20-year average during expansions. More positive discussions should also facilitate additional consumer and business confidence in the economy. This will encourage people to spend more and businesses to invest more. This is when the economy expands at a more pronounced rate. Give it the remainder of this year for some of these positive influences to grow in scale.
Arizona Snapshot:
Arizona total claims for unemployment insurance continue to decline and are 22.9% below a year ago.
Arizona consumer confidence, as presented by the survey conducted by Behavior Research, show signs of improvement. Confidence is up from last quarter but remains at constant levels seen since 2012.
January retail sales for the state were up a strong 10.2% compared to a year ago.
According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS), the MLS for Greater Phoenix, listings were up from a month ago and are up 31.0% from a year ago. Also, median housing prices, while up 20.6% from a year ago in January, have been relatively flat for the past several months.
It continues to surprise the extent some local leaders are still down about Arizona. The economy went through a particularly tough time during the downturn but the fundamentals remained in place. Sector by sector job growth is proceeding as expected. The state is currently a top 10 location for job growth and will likely be top 5 by next year. Population flows are also improving and should accelerate by next year. Many advancements were made during these tough times in terms of tax policy, regulatory policy, and in selective use of economic development programs. We are stronger for having gone through this. We have it pretty good all things considered.
U.S. Snapshot:
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February remains unchanged from the final January reading of 81.2. But, the index is up from 77.6 a year ago.
Industrial production in the U.S. continued to grow and now stands 2.9% above year earlier levels. This pushed up capacity utilization to 78.5, up from 77.7 a year ago.
Retail sales fell 0.4% in January from December following a decrease of 0.1% the previous month. Autos pulled down the total. Retail sales are still up 2.6% from a year ago.
Business inventories rose 0.5% in December. However, business sales were up only a modest 0.1% driving the inventory/sales ratio up to 1.30 from 1.29 in November.
