Pollack: All eyes on the election

 

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The Source for Information and Analysis on the Arizona Economy and Real Estate
EDP LogoELLIOTT D. POLLACK

& Company

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 7th, 2016
 
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
While the election is apparently “too close to call”, it will be interesting to see how the results of the election will affect the economy.  Some analysts fear a Trump win will cause a “Brexit-like” drop in the market and perhaps slower growth in the economy overall. Others claim a Clinton win will have negative impacts on specific industries such as the energy sector or coal mining.  Meanwhile, analysts suggest a win from either candidate could result in a negative impact on the health care industry.  Either way, we should have a victor on Tuesday, or at least soon after.
Locally, all eyes are on the results of the legalization of marijuana and the potential for a minimum wage increase in Arizona to $12 by 2020.
U.S. Snapshot:
  • Jobless claims are at record lows and reports suggest employees are staying put in their current jobs.  Initial claims were up only 7,000 during the week of October 29th to 265,000 though the 4-week average is 257,750.  This suggests continued declines in the unemployment rate.
  • The ISM manufacturing index expanded to 51.9 in October, indicating growth in the manufacturing sector for the second month in a row.  A reading over 50 percent indicates the manufacturing industry is generally expanding.
  • Total nonfarm employment rose 161,000 in October, which is lower than the year-to-date average of 181,000 per month.  The sectors that continue the upward trend are health care (+31,000), professional and business services (+43,000) and financial activities (+14,000).    Employment is now 1.7% above a year ago.
  • Personal income increased 0.3% in October.  It now stands 3.2% above a year ago.  Disposable personal income also increased 0.3% and is now 3.4% above last year.
  • The median price of a single family home increased to $240,900 in the third quarter, up 5.2% from a year ago.  According to the National Association of Home Builders, the persistent increases in prices are due to persistent supply shortages throughout the country.
Arizona Snapshot:
  • Home prices in Greater Phoenix were up 7.5% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The median price of a single family home was $235,300 versus $218,800 in the third quarter of 2015.
  • The median price of a new home also increased.  According to the Information Market, new home sales price averaged $327,794 in October 2016, up 5.7% from a year ago.
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