The Source for Information and Analysis on the Arizona Economy and Real Estate
ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 17th, 2017
The Monday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
Last Week’s data support two trains of thought that have been circulating over the past week or so. The first has to do with the increasing possibility that not enough of President Trump’s economic and tax package will make it through congress to allow the positive impacts on growth hoped for to take place. This has resulted in many economists lowering their real GDP estimates for 2017 and 2018. Actually, there was never a realistic chance that the package would get through Congress early enough in 2017 to have a major impact. But, 2018 was supposed to be a different story.
The second is tied to the first. It suggests that the continued strength in labor markets and a high level of consumer confidence will not translate into more consumer spending. Given the weakness in the recent retail sales numbers, this is certainly a possibility. The result of these two things could cause a retrenchment in the stock market, a reduction in confidence and a continued slower than normal rate of economic growth. Overall, the passage of the major parts of the economic and tax package would need to get through congress in order to see the improvements in the economy that most people, based on surveys, expected upon Trump’s election. It is still early in the game and no one knows how it will play out. But, doubts are beginning to set in. Only time will tell.