By disrupting the way employees commute to work, autonomous vehicles are expected to fundamentally reshape the U.S. office market by 2030, according to a new report from CBRE. Most significantly, the primacy of commercial real estate’s traditional decision drivers—geographic location and access to talent—may decrease as the importance placed on the workplace experience and building amenities grows.
Based on extensive and proprietary research, including interviews with leading experts in the AV space, CBRE’s report predicts that autonomous vehicles could account for between 11 and 27 percent of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) by 2030. Factors considered in CBRE’s analysis include the rate at which the cost-per-mile for AVs decreases compared to personal cars; the time it takes to develop software capable of navigating both inclement weather and complex urban roadway layouts; and advances in vehicle manufacturing capacity.
“Autonomous vehicles may have the greatest impact on U.S. real estate markets since mass adoption of the car and expansion of the federal highway system,” said David Eisenberg, senior vice president, Digital Enablement & Technology, CBRE. “Ride-sharing services, which currently account for only about two percent of vehicle miles traveled in the U.S., have already had a major impact on transportation patterns, so even the conservative estimate of an 11 percent share of VMT will significantly disrupt employee mobility, and thus impact office markets, by 2030.”