2019 forecast and how it affects the future of commercial real estate

By Marina Hammersmith | AzBigMedia

We are in the second longest economic expansion in US history and, according to Economist Elliott Pollack, expansion is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace in 2019.

At the Annual 2019 IREM/CCIM Forecast, held on January 24th, Elliott Pollack and a host of panelists gathered together to discuss the state of the economy here in Phoenix, including what is driving growth and if the trend will continue.

We are in the second longest period of recovery and Pollack indicates that we are in the 8th inning. As the period of recovery gets longer; however, there are susceptibilities that can trigger recession. While that term brings the potential for angst and discomfort, Pollack reminds us that not all recessions are created equal. The most recent recession of 2007 to 2009 was a “once-in-an-80-year experience” and is unlikely to occur again in our lifetimes. The credit crisis caused by the bursting housing bubble helped to create this significant market correction. However, most recession periods last eight to 11 months and are mild. The good news is that with no significant imbalance in need of correction, when it does happen, indicators point to a mild recession.


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