Pollack: Path of volatility



& Company


October 15, 2019

The Monday Morning Quarterback 

A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week

The economy continues its path of volatility, simultaneously experiencing both good and bad news. But, despite ongoing fears of a recession on the horizon fueled by trade disputes, an inverted yield curve, and slow growth in China and Europe, the U.S. continues to grow and the markets are still near historic highs. The ride isn’t over.

For the U.S. as a whole, the Blue Chip panel forecasts continued economic growth through the rest of this year and into next, although expectations have ticked downward slightly. There are still over 7 million job openings, and consumers are more positive than last month (which was historically quite positive already).

For Arizona and Maricopa County, retail sales performance remains a bright spot and has exceeded previous forecasts.

U.S. Snapshot:

According to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators October survey, the 2019 real GDP forecast remained at 2.3% but the 2020 decreased to 1.7% from 1.8%.

Job openings decreased 1.7% from July and 4.0% from a year ago. While this below the November 2018 high (7.6 million), August’s results (7.1 million) remains at a high level.

The preliminary October reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 96.0. The index rose from 93.2 last month and compares to 98.6 a year ago.

The consumer price index for all items increased 1.7% over a year ago. While the all items less food and energy grew 2.4% from a year ago.

Consumer credit increased $17.9 billion in August. The gain was concentrated in non-revolving credit ($19.8 billion) and revolving credit decreased ($1.9 billion) compared to July.

Arizona Snapshot:

  • Retail sales in Arizona increased by 7.5% in August when compared to year-earlier levels. In Maricopa County, retail sales grew by 7.1% over a year ago.

About EDPCo

Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.  

For more information, contact –

Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251

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