What to expect for the Tucson housing market with COVID-19

By Mike Sunnucks | Rose Law Group Reporter

The Tucson housing market is experiencing the same dynamics of Phoenix and other cities with COVID-19 putting the brakes on healthy sales numbers.

New home sales figures for the Tucson metropolitan area from mid-January to mid-March were up 10 percent compared to a year ago, according to Belfiore Real Estate Consulting.

Steven Hensley, a research analyst with Belfiore Real Estate Consulting, said the Tucson market was also seeing low supplies of homes for sales coupled with strong sales demand.

“Going into this, builders were in a good situation to weather the storm,” Hensley said. He said builders can in the short-term catchup on some backlogs in the existing construction pipeline. “There is some work they can finish up,” Hensley said.

The Coronavirus pandemic has closed sales offices and put many home buyers on the sidelines at least temporarily.

Hensley said home sales projections for Tucson are similar to those expected in metro Phoenix. He said Tucson will likely see an 80 percent drop in home sales in the second quarter, 50 percent in the third quarter, 25 percent in the fourth quarter and a 10 percent ever over year decline in the first quarter of 2021.

Like in Phoenix, a rebound is expected in the second quarter of 2021.

Hensley said Tucson’s recovery could be a bit slower than Phoenix. “I think it’s going to be a little bit slower growth,” he said.

Hensley said Tucson’s economy and employment bases are more centered on tourism and government contracts and less diversified than metro Phoenix.

Tucson has historically seen slower and more methodical job gains than its larger and more sprawling neighbor to the north.

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April 2020