By Monmouth University
West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden leads Donald Trump among registered voters in Arizona, but the margin narrows under different turnout models. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds the Democrat with a large advantage among Latino voters and a small edge in all-important Maricopa County. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly maintains his lead over incumbent Martha McSally. The poll also finds widespread voter support for a ballot measure to impose an income tax surcharge on high-earners and nominally more support than opposition for a proposition to legalize marijuana, although the latter vote could be close depending on turnout.
Among all registered voters in Arizona, the race for president stands at 48% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The contest stood at a similar 46% to 43% in a poll taken shortly before the state’s presidential primary in March. Another 4% currently support Jo Jorgensen and 3% are undecided. Voter intent includes 42% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 45% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 48% who are not at all likely).
Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race narrows to 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump. The race tightens even more to 47% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. Arizona has given its electoral votes to the Democrat only once in the past 70 years (1996). Trump won the state by just under 4 points in 2016.