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Opinion: For Sen. Kyrsten Sinema to win reelection, the stars must align and four things need to happen. I wouldn’t count her out just yet.
By Laurie Roberts || The Arizona Republic
With Ruben Gallego’s entry into Arizona’s Senate race, it appears the political obituary of the senator he seeks to succeed is all but written.
RIP, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
So say the pollsters and most of the state’s political consultant class, people who believe Sinema’s December departure from the Democratic Party was a death blow to her reelection prospects.
And yet, of late, there are three additional letters I’ve begun hearing around town.
NSF. Not so fast.
“I think she’s absolutely going to run,” said longtime consultant Chuck Coughlin, a former Republican who (like a lot of Arizonans) became an independent in 2017. “If she could get 20 to 25% of the Democratic and Republican vote and 60% of independents, that’s 43% of a statewide race. That’s a win.”
This doesn’t sound like a senator giving up
Early polls suggest that’s a fantasy. She trails badly in a three-way race with Gallego and Republican Kari Lake.
“I don’t think there is a scenario where she is going to win a three-way race,” Democratic lawyer Roy Herrera, who has joined the Gallego campaign, told me.
That’s certainly the conventional wisdom.
