By Eye On Housing
The labor market may not be as strong as previously estimated, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to full population counts of employment for the month of March. It improves the accuracy of the CES all-employee series and provides an early look at adjustments to employment data.
According to the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision, total payroll employment for the period from April 2023 to March 2024 (12 months) was lowered by 818,000, about 0.5% less than previously estimated. If the final benchmark revision is not far off the preliminary one, this preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision would be the largest downward revision since March of 2009 (the 2009 revision was a reduction of 902,000 estimated jobs).
Additionally, while the CES data show that 2.9 million jobs were added from April 2023 to March 2024, the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision suggests that job growth was overstated by about 40%. On a monthly basis, there were about 68,000 fewer jobs on average in the 12-month period through March 2024.
