ELLIOTT D. POLLACK
& Company
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 20th, 2018
The Monday Tuesday Morning Quarterback
A quick analysis of important economic data released over the last week
We hope everyone enjoyed their President’s Day. There were certainly things to enjoy from last week’s economic data. Consumer sentiment, already at high levels, continues to improve. Retails sales improved on a year over year basis. Manufacturing and trade sales were up. Consumer prices also remain under control, although the January over December comparison makes the series worth watching carefully going forward. Housing remained strong. And, while industrial production was down very modestly month over month, it was only after four consecutive months of increases.
Thus, there remain few signs of significant issues at the present time. This is true in the face of a tax cut, an aging economy, low unemployment and a near record number of unfilled jobs. Let’s hope the good news continues.
U.S. Snapshot:
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Optimism over tax cuts appears to be offsetting concern over the stock market. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 99.9 in February. This compares to 95.7 in January and 96.3 a year ago. Outside of October last year, this is the highest score in 14 years.
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Advance estimates of retail and food services sales for January were down 0.3% from a seasonally adjusted December, but were up 3.6% from a year ago.
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Manufacturing and trade sales in December were up 0.6% from December and stood a strong 6.7% above a year ago. Inventories remained under control and the inventories to sales ratio remained at a moderate 1.33 (see chart below).
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The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5% in January compared to December and is up 2.1% from a year ago. Yet, the “all items less food and energy”, known as the base rate of inflation, remained more under control. The month over month increase was 0.3% and the index compared to a year ago is up a modest 1.8%. While the index bears close watching, there are no significant problems at this point.
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Industrial production edged down 0.1% in January following four consecutive monthly increases. Manufacturing production was unchanged in January. Mining output fell 1.0%. The index stands 3.7% above year-earlier levels as of January.
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Privately owned housing permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.396 million. This was a strong 7.4% gain over December and a 7.4% from the year-earlier level.
Arizona Snapshot:
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According to the Tucson MLS, total active listings were 3,375 in January. This was a 2.3% decline from December. A year ago, the level of total listings stood at 3,397. The median price of a home sold in Greater Tucson increased from $185,000 to $200,000. This equates to an 8.1% gain
About EDPCo
Elliott D. Pollack & Company (EDPCo) offers a broad range of economic and real estate consulting services backed by one of the most comprehensive databases found in the nation. This information makes it possible for the firm to conduct economic forecasting, develop economic impact studies and prepare demographic analyses and forecasts. Econometric modeling and economic development analysis and planning are also part of our capabilities. EDPCo staff includes professionals with backgrounds in economics, urban planning, financial analysis, real estate development and government. These professionals serve a broad client base of both public and private sector entities that range from school districts and utility companies to law firms and real estate developers.
For more information, contact
Elliott D. Pollack & company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200
