Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
The Monday Morning Quarterback: A quick analysis of important economic data released over the past week
Employment again led all economic related news stories this past week. New job creation across the country totaled 171,000 in October, with an upwardly revised 148,000 jobs for September. These statistics are far better than the sub-100k per month that we realized from May through June of this year. However, wait until the numbers consistently exceed 200k before getting too excited. Given the reluctance of businesses to invest heavily until there is more economic and political certainty, these numbers are welcome for now.
The unemployment rate for those looking for work is 7.9%. Remember from before that this data point does not include the underemployed or those beaten down and not looking for work. This statistic is more political fodder than a useful measure at this point in time.
Other economic data points are creeping up steadily, yet unimpressively. U.S. personal income is up 3.9% compared to last year. The U.S. personal savings rate is at 3.3%, down slightly from last year. Consumer confidence improved to 72.2 in October, which is up from a level of 68.4 in September. This sounds good, but “normal” is 100. Thus, we still have a ways to go. And of course, our real time data point, gas prices, continues its slightly downward trajectory with another weekly price decline of over 3.0%.
In our own climate-favorable region, home prices appear to have temporarily stabilized after an impressive run during the last year-plus. After approximately 30% appreciation, prices were flat for September, with a median sales price of $150,000 in Greater Phoenix according to Arizona State University. This slowing isn’t necessarily a bad thing and very likely is temporary. Given our better than average rate of economic growth and favorable economic outlook, single family price appreciation should continue.
And a final note to our friends and colleagues that are running for public office. Good luck on Tuesday. It takes a lot of guts to willingly put yourself through the personal scrutiny of a campaign.
