For 2021 housing data, context is key

By Logan Mohtashami | Housingwire

2021 was supposed to be different. In the first days of the New Year, we have been dealing with a new strain of COVID, vaccinations aren’t going as planned and the political drama is hotter than ever. It is starting to seem like 2020 all over again.

But things are different. On Jan. 5 the 10-year Treasury yield broke 1%, and on Jan. 6 the 10-year remained above that line in the sand even with the storming of Capitol Hill. America’s fight against COVID-19 still presses on, but we do see the light at the end of the tunnel.

This 10-year yield milestone is important to keep in mind when we look at the housing data in the coming months. The housing data in late 2020 went parabolic by some measures and now it should moderate to a normal trend. But unless we see noticeable hits on forward-looking indicators of demand, like the MBA purchase applications, we shouldn’t interpret the moderation of housing sales metrics as anything other than going back to trend.

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