The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is giving the proposed map of new legislative districts a grade of A in partisan fairness.
By Howard Fischer | Capitol Media Services
It’s still a work in progress.
But an organization that studies the fairness of political redistricting plans nationwide likes some of what it sees developing here.
The Princeton Gerrymandering Project is giving the proposed map of new legislative districts a grade of A in partisan fairness.
So out of the 30 legislative districts, the lines give Republicans a sufficient edge in 14 to pretty much guarantee whoever is nominated can win the election, with two others leaning that way. By comparison, it gives Democrats nine seats that should be safe for the party’s nominee with 5 others with a Democratic leaning.
Ditto, the researchers say, with the draft map of how the Independent Redistricting Commission is drawing the lines that will exist for the state’s nine congressional districts for the decade, with a Democratic edge in three and a Republican edge in three others.
The analysis is of what is available publicly which is still an early version. Commission members meet again this week to continue making adjustments, with a goal of having something ready just before Christmas to use in the August 2022 primary and November general election.
But the project is less impressed with the number of competitive districts now being contemplated, places where candidates from either party have a chance of winning. And that is far different than partisan split.
Out of those 30 legislative districts, the project’s analysts found just seven in the maps so far being considered by the commission where the margin of vote share between the parties was in a range where the vote could go either way. And only three of the state’s nine congressional districts were listed in the “competitive zone.”
Put another way, whoever wins the partisan primary in 23 of the districts is a virtual shoo-in to take the seat in the general election.
And just three of the nine congressional districts are considered competitive.
That rates just a grade of C.
What makes that significant is that the 2000 voter-approved law creating the commission requires that, to the extent possible, it create as many politically competitive districts as possible where a candidate from either party could win the general election.
But there are other factors that could get in the way.
